The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a high-confidence alert indicating that the El Niño climate phenomenon is likely to return within the coming weeks.
According to the agency, signals point to a widespread and rapid rise in global surface temperatures, with the potential for the event to reach significant intensity.
In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, released on April 21, the WMO reports that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are rising at an accelerated pace. This indicates a high probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between May and July.
While the WMO remains cautious about using the colloquial term ‘super’ El Niño, emphasising that it is not a technical or scientific classification, officials note that current modelling suggests a "strong event" is on the horizon.
"After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned," said Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, chief of climate prediction at the WMO.
"There is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," he reports.
The return of El Nino this year is expected to trigger a cascade of changes in global weather patterns.
The WMO’s forecast for May though July suggests a period of significant global climate disruption, characterised by record-breaking heat with surface temperatures expected to rise above normal in nearly every region of the world, potentially making 2026 one of the hottest years in recorded history.
Impacts are predicted to be particularly severe across the southern United States, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe and North Africa, where the phenomenon significantly increases the likelihood of extreme events, including record heatwaves, prolonged droughts and devastating wildfires.
Furthermore, the WMO warns of intense rainfall volatility. While patterns will vary geographically, strong regional variations are expected to trigger severe dry spells in some areas while others face an increased risk of catastrophic flooding.
The WMO stresses that early warnings are crucial for mitigating the impact on human life and the economy.
By identifying these signals in April, governments and humanitarian agencies have the opportunity to make a head start in preparing for water shortages, agricultural disruption and health risks associated with extreme heat.
Experts recommend that nations begin implementing early action protocols to soften the blow of what could be one of the most powerful climate events of the decade.
